A senior economist of the Information Resource Development Department of the State Information Center is predicting that China will surpass the US as the world’s largest auto market by the year 2020.

Most middle class Chinese will be able to afford a car by 2009.  Mass production, what China does best, will make the cars even more desirable.

And, voila’! China takes over as number one.

When sales of vehicles reaches 7 million cars this year, China will pass Japan to become the world’s second largest market.

Additionally, China has been doubling the number of cars exported each year since 2002. This year the total will be 215,000 cars and next year, perhaps 500,000.

But then….that will be 15 years down the road AND if all things stay the same.

I once heard that if you laid 10 economists down from head to foot next to each other…they still wouldn’t reach a conclusion.

At least these guys are sticking their necks out.

What do you think?

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